Indian Economy May Decline By 12 to 15%! Estimates Of Two Rating Agencies

On Sep 9, 2020

New Delhi : After Fitch, two more rating agencies Goldman Sachs and India Ratings have now raised concerns for policymakers in India. Both rating agencies have estimated that there could be a steep decline of about 12 to 15 percent in India’s GDP in this financial year i.e. 2020-21.

It is worth noting that earlier the rating agency Fitch had released an estimate that the Indian economy may decline by 10.5 per cent this financial year due to the Corona crisis. According to the data released by the Government of India, there has been a drastic decline of 23.9 percent in GDP in the first quarter of this financial year i.e. June.

What Goldman Sachs says
Investment bank Goldman Sachs has estimated that the Indian economy may fall by a massive 14.8 per cent in FY 2020-21. Prior to this, Goldman Sachs had released an estimate of 11.8 percent.

Goldman Sachs said in a research note, “Looking at the GDP data for the June quarter, we are making a big change in India’s GDP estimate. We estimate that GDP may fall by 11.1 per cent in this calendar year 2020 and 14.8 per cent in FY 2020-21.

India Ratings’ estimate
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has released an estimate of 11.8 percent decline in India’s GDP in the financial year 2020-21.

However, this Indian rating agency predicts that the economy will be back on track in FY 2021-22 and there could be a good growth of 9.9 per cent. According to the agency, China’s GDP will increase this year and its economic growth rate can be up to 2.7.

What was Fitch’s guess?
Earlier, the rating agency Fitch had estimated that the Indian economy could fall by 10.5 percent in this financial year i.e. 2020-21. That means GDP can be minus 5.5 percent. Significantly, due to the Corona crisis, the country’s June quarter GDP has declined by 23.9 percent.

“After the economy reopens, there should be a strong improvement in GDP in the third quarter of October to December, but there are indications that the pace of recovery will be slow and uneven,” Fitch said.