New Delhi: Amid pandemic, the economic growth of various countries including India has worst hit. However a study published in the medical journal Lancet found by translating working age population of countries into scenarios for total GDP says the Indian economy is set to become the third largest in the world behind China and the US by 2050 and retain the same position in 2100.
The Lancet paper said taking 2017 as the base year when India’s worldwide economic position was of the seventh largest economy, India will move up to become the fourth largest economy behind the US, China, Japan by 2030 and it will overtake Japan in 2050. India is currently the fifth largest economy in the world, closely followed by France and UK.
In the many this year, Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar said India should aspire to become the 3rd largest economy by 2047. The current projectiosn are less promising compared to earlier estimates possibly following hit by the slowdown due to the coronavirus pandemic.
According to a study by Japan Center for Economic Research in December last year revealed India would surpass Japan to become the third largest economy by 2029. Indian government’s own ambitious target to become a $ 5 trillion economy by 2025 is also set to be missed post the pandemic.
According to the Lancet paper there would be huge declines in working age population in China and India, though India would maintain the top position as by 2100, India was forecast to still have the largest working-age population in the world, followed by Nigeria, China, and the USA. Other countries bolstered by immigration that rose up in the global rankings by GDP were Australia and Israel. Despite huge declines in population forecasted this century, the paper said Japan will remain the fourth-largest economy in 2100.
The paper says, there will be a decline in fertility and slow population growth as the new trend of in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come.