Growth steps, oil prices set to boost equities (Market Outlook)
By Rohit VaidMumbai, Aug 25 (IANS) Indian equities along with the rupee which have lately faced headwinds of massive foreign fund outflows along with disappointing quarterly earning results will get a boost via Central government’s policy measures to prop up growth along with falling crude oil prices, experts said.
However, the escalation in the US-China trade war and release of key macro-economic indicators are expected to induce some volatility in the stock markets.
Moreover, industry observers pointed out that the latest measures announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will assuage investors’ nerves and bring back confidence in the Indian economy.
In one of the most important measures, the government has rolled back higher surcharge on foreign and domestic portfolio investors.
“The current announcements will have significant impact on the sentiments of both domestic and international investors and is likely to arrest the fall in equity and currency markets,” Edelweiss Professional Investor Research Chief Market Strategist Sahil Kapoor told IANS.
“This coupled with fall in oil should lead to a significant bounce back in the coming days. Expect Nifty to find a base at recent lows and rally towards 11,400 to 11,600 range over the next few weeks.”
According to Vinod Nair, Head Of Research at Geojit Financial Services: “FPIs were selling given the risk-off mode in the global market which had enhanced in India due to higher surcharge post budget.
“They have sold about Rs 28,000 crore since the date which can be reversed to a good level in culmination of other supportive measures like recapitalisation of PSBs, transmission of rate cut and auto. This is likely to restore some confidence in the market.”
Besides, key macro-economic indicators such as June quarter GDP growth numbers, Index of Eight Core Industries (ECI) figures and the country’s fiscal deficit data will be keenly watched by investors.
“India’s GDP numbers for June quarter will be out on August 30. Expectations are GDP would have grown by 5.6-5.7 per cent,” HDFC Securities’ Research Head Deepak Jasani told IANS.
“Any data majorly deviant from expectations could create volatility in the markets.”
In terms of currency, the Indian rupee is expected to range between 71.20 and Rs 72.50 to a USD. On a weekly basis, weakened by 51 paise to close at 71.67 against the dollar, down on its previous week’s close of 71.16 per greenback.
“Trade war between China and the US is getting worse… Domestic FPI roll back added to sentiment but global news shall keep rupee under pressure. We may see a range of 71.20 to 72.50 in coming week,” said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates, Edelweiss Securities.
“Rupee touched an 8 month low of 72.04 before closing at 71.66 on last Friday. Rupee is closely following cues from CNY which is weakening gradually and in such case RBI may not intervene except to prevent large bouts of volatility…”
On technical charts, Jasani said that any pullback rallies in the coming week could find resistances at 10,908-11,034 points level.
(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at [email protected])